WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OUTLOOK

The day starts quiet and sunny over much of the Island, however, clouds will spill in throughout the day from southwest from west to east. Rain will arrive on the West Coast between 4 and 6 PM and will spread east overnight. Highs climb into the upper single digits to lower teens.

The rain will end from west to east late Wednesday night and Thursday morning and will be offshore by midday Thursday. Rainfall amounts will in the 5 to 15 mm range, with up to 30 mm for parts of the West Coast.

Thursday will then see clearing conditions across the Island, with highs reaching the lower teens.

Meanwhile, in Labrador, we will see showers in the west on Wednesday, with sunny skies in the east. Highs range from 7 to 10. A cooler day is on tap for Thursday, with some flurries and/or showers in the east. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy and highs will be in the 2° to 6° range.

Friday will start quietly across the Province, but rain will spread into Central, western, and southern Newfoundland during the afternoon. Highs near 10°. Labrador will see sunshine Friday, with highs near 3°.

Saturday will be another rainy day on the Island, while rain and accumulating snow will fall in Labrador. At the moment, it’s still a little too early to get into snowfall amounts, however in some areas of the North Coast it does look like it will be a healthy amount. The first decent shot of the snow this season looks to be on the way.

TONIGHT’S OUTLOOK

Tuesday night will generally see fair weather conditions across the bulk of Newfoundland and Labrador. On the Island, we can expect partly cloudy to mostly clear skies, with low temperatures ranging from near 0° to 10°. The coolest readings will be found in Central, the warmest on the South Coast, and everywhere else will generally end up between 0° and 5°.

Labrador will see partly to mostly cloudy skies, with flurries and showers in the west. Lows of 1° to 4° will be common, with the cooler side of that range in the west and the warmer in the east.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OUTLOOK

The day starts quiet and sunny over much of the Island, however, clouds will spill in throughout the day from southwest from west to east. Rain will arrive on the West Coast between 4 and 6 PM and will spread east overnight. Highs climb into the upper single digits to lower teens

The rain will end from west to east late Wednesday night and Thursday morning and will be offshore by midday Thursday. Rainfall amounts will in the 5 to 15 mm range, with up to 30 mm for parts of the West Coast.

Thursday will then see clearing conditions across the Island, with highs reaching the lower teens.

Meanwhile, in Labrador, we will see showers in the west on Wednesday, with sunny skies in the east. Highs range from 7 to 10. A cooler day is on tap for Thursday, with some flurries and/or showers in the east. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy and highs will be in the 2° to 6° range.

Friday will start quietly across the Province, but rain will spread into Central, western, and southern Newfoundland during the afternoon. Highs near 10°. Labrador will see sunshine Friday, with highs near 3°.

Saturday will be another rainy day on the Island, while rain and accumulating snow will fall in Labrador. At the moment, it’s still a little too early to get into snowfall amounts, however in some areas of the North Coast it does look like it will be a healthy amount. The first decent shot of the snow this season looks to be on the way.

The weather across much of the Island will not be as rainy today, compared to yesterday nor will it be as warm. However, areas of southern and eastern Newfoundland will see periods of rain and showers throughout the day, thanks to a weak area of low pressure to our south. There is also going to be some fog in the mix as well, and we are already seeing that over sections of eastern this morning, including in and around St. Johns.

Future Radar does a good job of showing where the rain is going to be today. Note it’s not going to be overly heavy, but more light and steady over areas of the south and east. This also doesn’t show cloud cover, but for today most of the Island is going to be under cloudy skies, with some breaks moving into the GNP and West Coast during the afternoon.

Temperatures are also going to be quite a bit cooler today for the Province, as a whole. Expect highs only into the middle and upper single digits. In fact, it may even be cold enough that the higher elevations of southwestern Newfoundland see wet snow today. The HRDPS model, pictured below, suggests that. If you’re heading down the Burgeo Highway today, be on the lookout for some flakage!

The best weather, hands down, across the Province, today will be throughout most of Labrador, where sun and cloud will be the rule. The exception is on most of the coast, where there will be showers and/or wet snow at times today.

The area of low pressure that is driving the rain and gusty winds over the Island portion of the Province will be slow to pull away on Sunday. This will keep the rain on the go and gusty winds a factor throughout the day. On the plus side, by in large, the heaviest rain and highest wind speeds are done with. But the rain will continue over much of the Island into this evening, and in some cases into Monday. Future Radar times this out very well.

WEATHER ALERTS

As of early Sunday morning, a Rainfall Warning remains in effect for much of central, interior, western, and northern Newfoundland. This will likely be ended this evening, as the heavy rain threat finally ends. You can find the details on these alerts right here.

THE RAIN

While much of the Island will see showers on Sunday, western and northwestern Newfoundland areas will see the heaviest rainfall throughout the day. Inside of that, the most intense rainfall rates will generally occur early Sunday morning. The rain will end for many areas late Sunday afternoon or evening, however for southeastern Newfoundland light rain will continue through Monday in onshore, northerly flow.

THE WIND

The wind speeds will be gusty for our Sunday but overall should be lower than Saturday’s peaks for areas of southern and eastern Newfoundland. Areas along the West Coast will notice an uptick in speeds today, and along the coast, gusts will be as high as 70 or 80 km/h from the north-northeast.

TEMPERATURES

Temperatures will be in the teens on Saturday and Sunday, before falling to the single digits on Monday as cooler air moves in. Enjoy the warmth this weekend, because these may be the last teens we see for a good long while, based on the long-range forecast. Labrador will see cooler readings, too, over the weekend. But no major weather looks to be in play for the Big Land.

For your latest forecast and to see our live, interactive radar, be sure to visit the weather centre!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND A WRECKHOUSE WIND WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE WEEKEND

Good Friday morning! The date is October 20, 2023, and we are starting off the day with temperatures in the teens and single digits across NL as of 6:40 AM NDT (6:10 AM ADT).

Throughout today, we will see a decent recovery in temperatures across much of the Province as some slightly warmer air moves into the region. Highs across the Island will crawl into the teens, and much of Labraodor will see highs in the upper single digits to lower teens.

There will be some showers working through Labrador West this morning which will turn into a lighter rain. The showers and light rain will push east and arrive as far east as Happy Valley-Goose Bay this evening. There will also be showers along the West Coast and possibly onto the Baie Verte Peninsula this afternoon, too.

The weather is going to turn a bit more stormy for the Island this weekend, and I’ll have your full breakdown on this later today on ntv.ca and this evening on NTV.

The Overview

A ridge of high pressure will keep the weather quiet and relatively calm across the bulk of the Province overnight. The same ridge will generally keep things sunny and mild for Friday, however, a few showers will skirt into Labrador and western Newfoundland at various times during the day. The next big weather-maker, which is a deepening area of low pressure, will arrive Saturday and will not depart until later Sunday. This low will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to much of the Island from Saturday mid-morning through Sunday.

A follow-up low could bring another bout of lighter rain on Monday. Temperatures will remain relatively mild through Saturday, with cooler air arriving Sunday or Monday. Highs dip into the single digits by early next week Island-wide.

Meanwhile, in Labrador, expect a quieter weekend, but a turn toward cooler temperatures by Sunday. In fact, by early next week highs will only be in the lower to middle single digits, and flurries will be widespread. This is a sure sign of the season.

The Forecast

Thursday Night: Mostly clear on the Island with lows of 6 to 12. It will be warmest o the southwest coast and generally cooler elsewhere. Labrador will see partly cloudy to mostly clear skies, with a few showers late in the west. Some areas of the west may see flurries. Lows of 2 to 7.

Friday: Mostly sunny to start the day across the Island, however, clouds increase central, west, and south during the afternoon. There may be some showers late in the day on the West Coast and on the Northern Peninsula. Highs in the lower to middle teens.

Labrador will see scattered showers, under mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. Highs of 5 in the west to 12 in the east and 8 in the north.

Saturday: Rain arrives on the Island during the late morning to early afternoon and will become heavy at times for most areas by evening. Wind speeds ramp up Saturday night and may gust to 100 km/h from the southwest during the overnight, over exposed areas. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower to middle teens.

Labrador will see mostly cloudy skies, with his of 4 in the west to 14 on the coast.

Sunday: Rain and showers will continue on the Island throughout the day. The best weather will likely be found in the east, where sunshine will be in the cards for the morning before showers return during the afternoon. Highs will be in the middle to upper teens south, central and east, while temperatures fall into the single digits in the west during the day.

Labrador will see scattered showers or flurries, with highs of 3 to 6.

Monday: Another chance of rain on the Island, with highs 6 to 8. Few flurries in Labrador under partly cloudy skies, with highs of 2 to 5.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy on the Island, in northerly flow. Highs near 7. Scattered flurries or showers in Labrador, with highs near 5.

The area of low pressure that, by in large, brought a miserable Monday to most of Newfoundland is pulling away, to the east, of the region this morning. This will improve the weather today, but northerly winds will keep clouds, a few showers, and seasonably cool temperatures in the cards today for much of the Island. Temperatures will reach the middle to upper single digits for highs this afternoon, and generally similar readings will be found in Labrador. Labrador will see a bit more sunshine, compared to the Island.

As the low slowly pulls away, there will be some high wave action along the east and north-facing shores of the Island from Cape Race (Southeast Avalon Peninsula) to Cape St. Johns (Baie Verte Peninsula). This high wave may generate higher than normal high tides this morning (7 AM to 10 AM) for the areas mentioned above. ECCC has issued a Special Weather Statement addressing the potential of minor coastal flooding. Those with interests in these areas, such as fishing vessels, should heed the alert and monitor your assets closely.

THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST

The remainder of the week will see generally quiet weather across the Province, with highs ranging from the single digits to lower teens. The next chance of rain looks to be late next weekend.

The area of low pressure that, by in large, brought a miserable day to most of Newfoundland is going to slowly depart overnight. This means areas of southern, eastern, central, and northeastern Newfoundland have to deal with rain and gusty winds into the early morning of Tuesday.

On top of that, temperatures are only going to be in the mid-single digits overnight, so it will feel even colder. For lack of a better term, it’s going to be a dirty old night out there. Futurecast shows the timing of the rain moving in, and out early Tuesday, very nicely, and can be seen below.

As the low slowly pulls away, there is going to be some high wave action along the east and north-facing shores of the Island from Cape Race (Southeast Avalon Peninsula) to Cape St. Johns (Baie Verte Peninsula). This high wave may generate higher than normal high tides tonight (7 PM to 10 PM) and Tuesday morning (7 AM to 10 PM) for the areas mentioned above. ECCC has issued a Special Weather Statement addressing the potential of minor coastal flooding. Those with interests in these areas, such as fishing vessels, should heed the alert and monitor your assets closely.

Beyond the rain, wind, and waves on the Island, parts of Labrador saw their first frozen precipitation of the season early this morning (October 16, 2023). According to Rodney Barney, a Meteorologist with the ECCC NL Weather Office in Gander, this is the latest on record.

First reported frozen precip of the season in western #Labrador (officially a drizzle/snow mix).

This makes Oct 16, 2023 the latest in any season Wabush #YWK has gone before reporting its first snow.

Previous latest first-snow date was Oct 2 (in 1975).

Data since 1961.#nlwx https://t.co/bcqpuVHrCu

— Rodney Barney (@rcbstormpost) October 16, 2023

THE FORECAST

The weather improves for Tuesday on the Island, however, clouds will remain for eastern and northeastern areas, while areas to the west should see some sunshine by the afternoon. There will be some scattered showers in the wake of the departing low. Highs range from 6 to 9 and winds will be as high as 30 km/h from the north.

Labrador will see partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies, with highs in the 3 to 7 range.

The remainder of the week will see generally quiet weather across the Province, with highs ranging from the single digits to lower teens. The next chance of rain looks to be late next weekend.

RAINFALL AND WIND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT

A strong area of low pressure is spinning well south of the Island Sunday night and is poised to bring a potent mix of rain and wind to eastern Newfoundland Monday into Monday night, or early Tuesday morning. Evening satellite imagery shows this pressure centre very well.

This area of low pressure will approach the Island late tonight and pass east of the Avlaon Monday evening, before pulling away into the North Atlantic early Tuesday morning. The track of this low will drive heavy rainfall across much of eastern and southeastern Newfoundland through the time frame, along with wind gusts to 80+ km/h Monday into Monday night over parts of the South Coast, east coast and northeast coast.

The Breakdown

THE RAIN

Rain will spread into southern and eastern Newfoundland between 3 AM and 6 AM on Monday. The rain will push back to the west and move about as far north as Central by 10 or 11 AM. In Central, the rain will generally be light to moderate. At the same time, areas of the South Coast, Burin, Avalon and Bonavista Peninsulas, along with the Clarenville area, will see the rain come down heavy at times during the day Monday into Monday evening. The rain will taper off late Monday night and will end from west to east over the Island by early Tuesday morning. Futurecast shows this very well, hour by hour.

Rainfall Amounts will be highest in the south and east, where upwards of 50 mm looks to fall during the day Monday into Monday night. Rainfall amounts taper off as you move westward, and away, from eastern sections of the Island.

THE WIND

The winds will peak at various times over different parts of the Island on Monday, and the highest gusts will be in the 70 to 90 km/h range over exposed coastal areas. The direction of the highest gusts will generally be from the north. The first bout of high winds will be found on the South Coast and southern areas from early Monday morning through mid-day Monday. The second bout of high winds will be over the Avalon and northeast coast from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. The wind speeds will ease off over all areas Monday night into Tuesday morning. Future wind gusts, below, times this out nicely for you.

I’ll have further updates for you throughout the day on Monday!

The Overview

An area of low pressure will stall, and move from east to west (called retrograding) over and south of the Island between Friday evening and Sunday before dissipating over the region between Sunday night and Monday. The slow movement of this low, along with the positioning, will allow significant amounts of rain to fall over much of the Island and parts of Labrador over the next few days.

On the Island, the heaviest rain will fall between tonight and late Saturday afternoon. The exception will be on the Great Northern Peninsula, where the rain will continue into early Sunday morning. Labrador will see rain move into the southeast Saturday and continue into late Sunday night or early Monday.

Futurecast, a combination of modeled satellite and radar data, will show this is forecast to play out and should give you a good idea of the timing of this all, in your particular region.

Rainfall amounts will be significant for parts of the southern, central, western, and interior parts of the Island between today and early Sunday morning. While in Labrador the heavy rain will fall between Saturday and late Sunday. On the Island, the heaviest rain will fall in the South where over 100 mm is possible. Amounts will be lower to the north, but still significant in spots. Rainfall Warnings are in effect.

Meanwhile, in Labrador, a widespread 20-40 mm will fall in the southeast between Saturday and late Sunday or early Monday. The image below shows how much rain can be expected in any particular area.

FOR YOUR LATEST FORECAST, VISIT THE WEATHER CENTRE!