The Overview

Our Thursday morning is starting off with some showers over, and just east of, the Avalon Peninsula. Radar shows this nicely and forecasts indicate that the activity will remain mostly offshore today. We are also seeing some showers over western and southwestern Newfoundland this morning, which will become more widespread in those areas as the morning and day moves along.

Thursday will see a narrow swath of partly cloudy skies from the Burin Peninsula to the northeast coast and as far west as Central. Eastern and western areas will be cloudy. Eastern areas, meaning the Avlaon, will see rainfall through some of the day, with showers lingering into the afternoon. Highs in the lower to middle teens. Meanwhile, expect isolated showers in Labrador, under mainly cloudy skies, with highs of 6 to 10. Fog will hug the coast again.

The next significant weather maker arrives Friday and will bring heavy rainfall to the Island from Friday night through Sunday. Some areas will see more than 50 mm of rain. I expect Special Weather Statements and Rainfall Warnings to be issued by ECCC ahead of this, at some point tomorrow or Friday. The rain lingers into Sunday before ending. Fall-like temperatures sweep across the Province for Monday as our weather pattern finally changes.

The Overview

Generally quiet weather will be found across the Province overnight with clouds being widespread. The exception will be over western, central, and interior parts of the Island where partly cloudy to mostly clear skies will be the rule. Lows will be in the 5 to 10 range on the Island and 4 to 10 range in Labrador. Win speeds will be light.

Thursday will see a narrow swath of partly cloudy skies from the Burin Peninsula to the northeast coast and as far west as Central. Eastern and western areas will be cloudy. In fact, eastern areas, meaning the Avlaon, will see rainfall through some of the day, with showers lingering into the afternoon. Highs in the lower to middle teens. Meanwhile, expect isolated showers in Labrador, under mainly cloudy skies, with highs of 6 to 10. Fog will hug the coast again.

The next significant weather maker arrives Friday and will bring heavy rainfall to the Island from Friday night thru Sunday. Some areas will see in excess of 50 mm of rain. I expect Special Weather Statements and Rainfall Warnings to be issued by ECCC ahead of this, at some point tomorrow or Friday. The rain lingers into Sunday before ending. Fall-like temperatures sweep across the Province for Monday as our weather pattern finally changes.

A narrow area of rain and showers is working its way across eastern Newfoundland this morning. The showers are moving from south to north, and the band is slowly slipping east. This narrow area of rain should lose its punch as it moves over the Avalon, meaning the rain should ease but the showers will remain.

Rest of Today

The showers and drizzle will continue across eastern, northeastern, central, and northwestern Newfoundland areas, along with coastal portions of Labrador today. At the same time, areas of southern and western Newfoundland will see skies clear out this morning. The clearing skies may even make it as far as Central by late afternoon. There is a chance areas as far east as Notre Dame and Bonavista Bays also see some sun later today, but I’m not holding my breath on that. Labrador West will also see sunny breaks at times today. Futurecast, below, times out the departure of the cloud cover and the expected temperatures for the day.

Thursday and Friday do not look dissimilar to today. The next, more organized area of rain, moves in for Saturday and lingers into Sunday. At this point, significant rainfall is likely over a large portion of the Island from a slow-moving, moisture-laden, area of low pressure. I’ll have more on this for you this evening.

Have a great Wednesday!

/Eddie

The Overview

A large of high pressure in the North Atlantic is doing what large areas of high pressure do, blocking traffic and slowing things down. This setup will do two things across the region that will be the primary drivers of our weather. They are as follows:

• The flow south of the high and north of almost every low that passes south of the high, and subsequently south of Newfoundland, is from the east or northeast. This keeps onshore flow on the go, and the drizzle and fog a forecast staple for eastern and northeastern Newfoundland and coastal Labrador. Areas inland are less foggy and occasionally less cloudy, but overall still not great. Temperatures don’t move much during the day and at night and will be in the lower to middle teens.
• Those slow-moving lows will drive a good bit of unsettled weather across the Province, with a widespread chance fo rain starting Thursday night and lingering into Saturday.

This pattern looks to remain in place through the early part of next week, before breaking down and becoming a little less spring-like and a bit more fall-like. However even at that point, a large low will replace the large high and while that may help a little, it’s not going to do great things.

The next couple of days look fairly quiet, meaning no organized weather but the continuation of the areas of rain, drizzle and fog across much of the Province. By Friday, an area of low pressure will take shape over the Maritimes and will slowly pass over, or just south of, Newfoundland as it slowly works through the region. There is the potential for heavy rainfall over much of the Island between Friday and Sunday, with over 100 mm possible for some areas of southern, central and eastern Newfoundland. The ECMWF model highlights this well.

The pattern should change next week to a more fall-like one. However the active weather will continue, meaning the rain chances and eventual snow chances (Labrador) continue into the foreseeable weather future.

Over the next 5+ days, we are going to be in a weather pattern of higher than normal pressure to our north and lower than normal pressure to our south. This puts Newfoundland and Labrador in broad onshore, easterly flow. This easterly flow will keep clouds, drizzle, and fog in the picture for eastern areas of the Island and coastal Labrador, with few exceptions. As you move farther west on the Island and inland in Labrador, the weather will not be as damp, but clouds and showers will still abound.

This pattern is almost “spring-like” except it will not be quite as cold in the onshore flow. Highs across most of the Island this week will be in the lower to middle teens and lows will be a few degrees lower. Fog will be common, especially on the Avalon and Bonavista peninsulas, and will be most dense at night.

THE FORECAST

Tuesday: Cloudy on the Island with scattered showers. Drizzle and fog in the east. There may be a few sunny breaks inland. Rain moves into southwestern Newfoundland in the afternoon. Laboradr will see cloudy skies in the east, giving way to some sunny breaks west. Highs of 10 to 15.

Wednesday: Periods of showers and/or rain thru central Newfoundland, otherwise expect more clouds, drizzle, and fog across much of the Island, minus the west coast and areas along the Gulf. Those areas may see some sunshine. Highs will be in the mid-teens. Labrador will see a mix of sun and cloud, with scattered showers. Highs of 10 to 16.

Thursday: Areas of showers on the Island. Drizzle and fog in the east and some sunny breaks in the west. Highs of 12 to 16. Coastal Labrador will see drizzle and fog, along with highs near 12. Interior and western areas will see highs of 12 under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers.

Friday/Saturday: Chance of rain on the Island, with highs near 12. Mostly cloudy in Labrador, with highs of 8 to 10.

Easterly flow dominates the weather pattern on Monday, which means a return to clouds, drizzle and even fog for a large part of the Island. Highs today reach the lower to middle teens Island-wide. The warmest readings will be found in offshore flow and in areas away from east-facing shores. Showers will be found over the west and southwest coast.

Meanwhile, Labrador will also see more clouds than sun today, and showers in the west. Highs reach the lower to middle teens across the Big Land. The showers will be most widespread between Goose Bay and Labrador City.

Tuesday will be a soggier day across the Province as some rain moves through. I’ll have an update on this later today.

Stay tuned for your next update!

Multiple record and monthly highs were set throughout the Big Land Saturday, and numerous locations throughout the Province reached the lower 20s under bright sunshine and surprisingly light wind speeds. Rodney Barney, a Meteorologist with the Environment and Climate Change Canada Weather Office in Gander (ECCC NL) highlighted this with a tweet.

Warm Saturday much of #NLwx. Coastal Labrador setting more October monthly record highs:

26.1°C at Mary's Hr (old 22.5°; Oct 4, 2005 – data since 1983).

23.9°C at Nain (old 20.2°; Oct 12, 2019 – data since 1984).

23.4°C at Makkovik (old 22.7°, Oct 6, 2023 – data since 1983). pic.twitter.com/PiXAKnhz5J

— Rodney Barney (@rcbstormpost) October 7, 2023

Sunday will see the remnants of Philippe push westward into Quebec. This will generally keep the weather across NL calm, although showers will push into Labrador West this afternoon, along with southwestern Newfoundland. Temperatures today will be warm, but shouldn’t be as warm as yesterday for most areas. We can thank that to clouds scooting into Labrador, limiting highs to the upper teens to about 20, and not so much over 20.

On the Island today, we should see more sunshine over a large part of that didn’t see it yesterday. In fact, oddly enough, skies will clear from east to west today and even the Avalon should see some sunshine by later this morning. The west and southwest coast may be hard-pressed to break into the sun, however, as the cloud over this area is more related to Philippe. Speaking of Philippe, this morning Marine Atlantic Crossings are cancelled. Be sure to check with them for the evening sailings!

Futurecast, below, should time out the clouds, showers, and temperatures across the Province for our Sunday and Monday.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

The long weekend is upon us and will start off on the unseasonably warm side for a large chunk of the Province. Friday saw numerous records fall in Labrador and on the Island, and I would suspect the same will happen today.

Temperatures yesterday, and again today, will be between 10 and 15 degrees above normal. While records in Labrador have been set before, this is pretty unprecedented stuff for this time of year, as both Goose Bay and Makkovik set their all-time October records on Friday as well. And with respect to anomalies, some of the highest is over Quebec and Labrador again today.

Weatherwise, for Saturday, we are generally looking at partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies across much of the Province. The exception will be on the Avalon, where clouds will hang tough. Now, not all areas of the Avalon will be cloudy all day. Inland locations and places near Trinity and Placentia Bays may see some sunshine, like yesterday. Highs throughout the Province range from the mid-teens to lower 20s. The coolest readings will be found over eastern Newfoundland and the warmest over interior and western parts of the Island and up through much of the Big Land.

Sunday and Monday will be a tad cooler as the remnants from Philippe make their way into the region. While the impacts from those to NL will be minimal, it will drive some showers into the region and bring temperatures back to a more normal type level as we close out the long weekend and go into next week.

The unseasonably warm weather sticks around for the bulk of our long-holiday weekend. There will be a bit of a cooling trend as we make our way toward Sunday and Monday. I broke the forecast down in tonight’s NTV Evening News Hour

We are waking up to temperatures that are generally as warm, or warmer, than what we were seeing yesterday afternoon and evening. The warmer air mass that was in Labrador yesterday has reached the Island portion of the Province as well. Take a look at some temperatures from 6:30 AM NDT this morning.

Along with the mild temperatures this morning, we are also seeing some clouds streaming across the region, under which there are some showers. There looks to be a chance of showers in Labrador West this morning, along with the top of the Great Northern Peninsula of Newfoundland. Satellite imagery shows the clouds moving in quite well.

The cloud cover today is going to be the biggest headache in my forecast. In some areas, it will clear off during the later morning and afternoon, and in other areas, it will hold steady throughout the day. My best guess is that most of the Province, west of the Avalon, will see sunshine by early to mid-afternoon. On the Avalon, it looks like the clouds are going to hold steady today. The Future Cloud animation below shows this nicely.

Temperatures will be similar to yesterday in Labrador, with highs into the teens and 20s. Much of the Island will see the same, although in the east expect mid-teens, while any 20s will be limited to central, southern, and western areas. More records will fall.